Book Review: The Second Machine Age
Author: Rick Phelan
Published: 05.19.14
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and
Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies
By Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
W.W. Norton & Company, 2014
Two MIT professors, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, have provided an interesting perspective on the ways various technologies are shaping our world. The book they co-authored on this topic is called The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies.
As K-12 educators think about the future of teaching and learning, they may want to consider some of the insights offered in this book. In addition to presenting their research, the authors also share observations about future careers and make recommendations. This blog post summarizes important concepts from Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee’s work.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee begin the book by showing the following graph of human progress:
They argue that the technological innovations of the last 200 years are unsurpassed in relation to innovation. With the invention of the Watt’s steam engine, humans were able to overcome the limitations of “muscle power” and could generate massive amounts of useful energy at will.
Our modern world stemmed from this transformation. The rise of factories and mass production, railways, mass transportation, and the growth of cities are evidence of how the world was changing. Brynjolfsson and McAfee call the automation of manual labor and horsepower the first machine age.
The Second Machine Age
Brynjolfsson and McAfee maintain that we are now in a second machine age. This is being driven by the automation of “knowledge work” through computers. They point to the proliferation of real-time predictive data analytics, machine learning, and the “Internet of Things” as evidence of this new machine age. By 2020, they say that there will be an estimated 200 billion devices connected to the Internet, all of them generating unimaginable quantities of data.
The authors say that “we are beginning to automate more cognitive tasks” as we advance in this second machine age. In some situations, we are eliminating human controllers and handing control over to computer algorithms. They state that, “… in many cases today artificially intelligent machines can make better decisions than humans.”
Brynjolfsson and McAfee provide examples of “cognitive” occupations where humans are being replaced by software-driven machines as substitutes:
- Grocery store cashiers | Self-serve checkout lanes at Safeway
- Tax preparers | TurboTax software
- Bank tellers | Automated teller machines (ATMs)
- Human automobile drivers | Google’self-driving car
From Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s view, what’s making this possible are three huge technological advances that have just reached their tipping points:
- Exponential advances in computing power (e,g., computer processing powers continue to double and triple while their prices fall)
- Scope and depth of digitization taking place in the world (everything from selfies to human genomes)
- Combinatorial processes where technologies are leveraged between industries and applications
Implications for Schools
Computers and robots are increasingly finding their way into rote work areas of our economy. In response to this reality, K-12 schools must develop human capacity in areas where humans have long-term viability.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee identify three cognitive areas where humans will most likely have advantages over computers for at least 40 years. The authors encourage K-12 schools to promote student learning in these areas
- Ideation | Coming up with new ideas and concepts
Examples: Scientists come up with a new hypothesis; journalists identify a good story; chefs add a new dish to the menu; engineers on a factory floor figure out why a machine is no long working properly
- Large Frame Pattern Recognition | Using our senses to take in information and examine it for patterns; to observe the world and make connections
Examples: Literature and the arts; scientific discoveries; combining elements that appeal to human senses in positive ways
- Complex Communication | Receptive understanding of human expression through verbal and non verbal cues; expressive communication relaying understanding and empathy
Examples: Nurses listening to patients describing their conditions; teachers coaching students in their learning efforts
Career Counseling
Brynjolfsson and McAfee encourage readers to think about careers that will be viable in the future. To this end, they share a matrix conceived by MIT colleagues where work is divided into a two-by-two matrix of cognitive vs. manual and routine vs. non-routine.
Demand for human workers is falling in jobs that involve routine tasks in both the manual and cognitive sectors (red areas). Examples include assembly line workers, bank tellers, mail clerks, machine operators, tax preparation professionals, and cashiers.
Demand for jobs that involve non-routine cognitive and manual tasks remain high (green areas). Examples include nurses, hair dressers, teachers, plumbers, and customer service specialists.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee present their views in a well-written book containing the ideas listed above along with many others. Points are backed up using information from history, technology, education, and economics.
Blog: Technology for Learners
